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Morton Kondracke
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Bush bets Pakistan will become South Korea, not Iran

Unfortunately, that regime still rules — with radical Shiite Islam and hatred for the United States as its guiding principles. It is now developing nuclear weapons and is aiding anti-U.S. and radical Islamic movements all over the Mideast.

Which future Pakistan will follow largely depends on whether Zardari and Sharif can govern effectively — inflation is running over 20 percent, and unemployment is mounting — and defeat increasingly aggressive Islamic extremists, some aided by Pakistan's own intelligence service.

Four past tries at democracy failed. Bhutto served as prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and from 1993 to 1996, and Sharif also served twice, before being toppled by Musharraf. Zardari and Sharif are now coalition partners but are still rivals.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.



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