Shorter-term, there’s reason to worry that just as some economic analysts are seeing the “green shoots” of a recovery, there could well be a second financial crisis brought on by defaults on commercial real estate, consumer credit and emerging-economy debt.

Conceivably, this might not be the expected “u-shaped” recovery — with a steep decline followed by a long period of slow growth and eventual improvement — but a “w,” in which the present uptick is followed by another decline.

If that occurs, after the public starts becoming optimistic about a recovery, as some polls show it now is, then Obama may not be able to blame the “w” economy on “W,” his predecessor.

It’s undoubtedly with some such calculation that Obama in his press conference on Tuesday poured cold water on budding public optimism, predicting unemployment would top 10 percent, rather than the 8 percent he previously forecast.

With the 2010 elections more than 16 months off, Democrats have a wide, 9-point edge over Republicans in generic Congressional polling.

But for his party to keep its big majorities, the jobless rate has to be heading down a year from now. In 1982, it’s worth remembering, even Ronald Reagan could not keep his party from losing 26 House seats.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.