Even in an election year that hardly could be worse for Republicans, nobody expected they would be at risk of losing a Senate seat in Mississippi.

The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since John Stennis’ re-election in 1982, nor has it voted for a Democratic White House candidate in seven presidential elections.

But this year, things began to change when a Democrat won a vacant House seat in a special election and the party tagged the Senate contest as one to watch. With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 4 election, the race between Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker and his Democratic rival, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, is a nail-biter.

That’s largely because of two factors: a historic economic meltdown that many blame on President Bush and record turnout expected among Mississippi’s black population, 37 percent of the state, on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

Wicker’s still the favorite. Gov. Haley Barbour, who appointed Wicker last year to fill the seat vacated by retired Sen. Trent Lott, signaled his confidence Wednesday when he left the state to campaign with GOP presidential hopeful John McCain.

Ideology trumps party labels in Mississippi, where the Confederate flag is still part of the state flag.

“Everybody’s conservative in Mississippi. It doesn’t matter if you’re black or white, Republican or Democrat, if you’re trying to stretch some money for 30 to 31 days in a month,” said Marty Wiseman, director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University.

That doesn’t mean Wicker can breathe easy.

“Wicker doesn’t have a deep incumbency,” Tougaloo College political scientist Steve Rozman said. “Wicker also is not your most dynamic candidate. He voted with Bush a whole lot, although in this state I don’t know if it makes that much of a difference.”

Nationally, it’s a key Senate seat. Democrats currently control 51 of the chamber’s 100 seats, nine votes shy of the 60-vote margin required to block Republican objections. As Election Day approaches, the Democrats are expected to increase their ranks by four to seven seats, not counting Mississippi’s. A win by Musgrove would put the party closer to a filibuster-proof margin.

Keeping Democrats on the downside of 60 is key for Republicans hoping to survive the election with some political power. So every seat is important to both parties. Political action committees have poured thousands of dollars in advertising into the Mississippi race.

Political experts say Wicker, a 57-year-old Air Force veteran, has a lock on the GOP vote. Many voters believe he’s done a good job in the Senate because he’s been instrumental in getting federal funding for numerous projects in the state, including $5.4 billion for Hurricane Katrina recovery.

To win, Musgrove, 52, will need to get all of what may be a record turnout of black voters expected to overwhelmingly support Obama, plus about 27 percent of the “Democrat-leaning, old-fashioned yellow dog” white vote, Wiseman said.

Voters don’t register by party and the state doesn’t gather information about the race of those who cast ballots, but historical patterns show Democratic candidates fare well in areas with larger black populations.

The state has registered about 189,800 new voters since January, an increase of about 10 percent. That also may work in Musgrove’s favor.